What to expect from the upcoming Bank of Canada interest rate update

by Peter Eki

🚨 Interest Rate Update: What Canadians Can Expect from the Bank of Canada Next Week

Another Bank of Canada (BoC) interest rate announcement is just around the corner — landing Wednesday, July 30 — and all eyes are on what happens next in the face of political tension, inflation pressures, and housing market shifts.

So far this year, the BoC has delivered two modest rate cuts (0.25% each), but held steady at 2.75% in June, following the surprise snap election win by Prime Minister Mark Carney. Ongoing global uncertainty — especially around U.S. tariffs and sluggish trade talks — has played a major role in the central bank’s cautious approach. With inflation ticking up slightly (1.9% in June), the BoC is playing wait-and-see before making any bold moves. “We want Canadians to feel confident in price stability,” said the Bank’s Governing Council.

📉 Will the Bank of Canada hold the interest rate?
Experts like Ratehub.ca’s Penelope Graham say another rate cut is unlikely this time around. Inflation is still sticky, core metrics remain above the BoC’s 2% goal, and both consumer and business confidence are holding steady despite tariff tensions. Graham notes that unless something drastic changes in the U.S.-Canada trade relationship, the BoC will likely pause rate cuts for now and stay in its "neutral zone."

🏡 What this means for mortgage rates and housing
The five-year government bond yield — a key driver of fixed mortgage rates — has climbed to a six-month high thanks to inflation worries. That’s pushed lenders to raise fixed mortgage rates, and more hikes could be coming. According to Graham, variable rates will likely stay put, but the window for affordable mortgage deals is starting to close. Her advice? Lock in a rate now with a rate hold or pre-approval before things heat up — because signs are pointing to a rebound in Canada’s housing market.

📅 Stay informed! Here are key BoC dates for the rest of 2025:

  • July 30 — rate update + monetary policy report

  • September 17 — rate update

  • October 29 — rate update + monetary policy report

  • December 10 — final rate update of the year

Announcements drop at 9:45 a.m. ET / 6:45 a.m. PT, so set your alarms or sign up for BoC email alerts. Whether you’re a homeowner, investor, or just trying to keep your budget on track, what happens next could affect your wallet.

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